Free MLB Betting Picks – Today’s Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (05/20/22)
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If you’re new, or just a reminder for those who read my articles last season, I’m John Brubaker. I’ve been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I have created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on race lines, totals and money lines. In this article, I will provide my favorite betting picks for MLB games at Sunday, May 15, 2022. I am continually working on improving my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses I will share the data I have on my staff Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to follow me if you haven’t already, and don’t hesitate to ask me questions! My DMs are still open. That said, let’s break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia’s 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to date: 22-24-1, -5.72 units
- Sides: 16-15, -4.95 units
- Totals: 5-9-1, -2.47 units
- Accessories: 1-0 +1.70 units
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TOR-184
CIN: Luis Castillo | TOR: Hyun-jin Ryu
I will be heading to Toronto for our first game of the day as the Reds take on the Blue Jays. The Reds will send Luis Castillo to the mound for his third start of the season, coming into this one 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA. He should improve, with an xFIP of only 4.17 on these two starts. I screened it for a 3.67 xFIP today with a rating of 29.64. He’ll shoot a tough game against the Blue Jays, and despite Toronto’s slight underperformance over the right-handed pitcher’s year, I predict they’ll have a hard contact rate of .615 wOBA+ISO and 36.44% . Even though Castillo performs well enough, Cincinnati doesn’t have much to back him up, with their bullpen entering this one with a 4.43 xFIP rating and 19.13, the worst of the Majors.
On the other side of the game, the Blue Jays will send Hyun-jin Ryu over the hill. Ryu is only making his fourth start of the season, entering this one with no decision and with a 9.00 ERA. He was unlucky this year, given his xFIP at 4.00. He will have the chance to improve that ERA against the Reds today, where I projected him as having a 3.45 xFIP and a 37.75 rating, giving the Blue Jays the pitching advantage here. The Reds have been relatively hot lately but struggle against lefties, ranking among the worst in the league. The Reds have a projected wOBA+ISO of 0.433 and a hard contact rate of 28.7%.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Blue Jays at -184 right now, some of the best odds you can find at this point. I’m willing to take that down to -200, which I can definitely see this line going over. The -184 odds give the Blue Jays an implied 64.79% chance of winning, while my model gives them a 4% margin of value with a 68.79% chance of winning. The Blue Jays have outplayed the Reds at home, winning six of their last seven games at Rogers Centre. I expect them to do seven out of eight today.
Choose: Blue Jays Money Line (-184) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SF-110
SD: Sean Manaea | SF: Jakob Junis
We’ll head to the West Coast for our second pick of the day, as the Padres take on the Giants. The Padres will send Sean Manaea to the mound, who enters this one 2-3 with a 3.77 ERA. His xFIP shows that he is a little unlucky, with that number reaching 3.22. My model projected Manaea about the same as its season numbers today, projecting a 3.36 xFIP and a 26.33 rating. While the Giants have a projected wOBA + ISO of just 0.438, they have a projected hard contact rate of 35.88% against Manaea tonight.
On the other side, the Giants will send Jakob Junis to the mound. Junis will make his third start of the 2022 campaign, entering this one 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA. While its xFIP of 3.54 shows it’s due to regression, my model doesn’t see the regression bug hitting it that hard. He has a projected xFIP of 3.20 and odds of 37.81, giving San Francisco the starting pitcher advantage. The Padres are throwing at a hard contact rate of .395 wOBA + ISO, 30%, but will likely keep the ball on the ground, throwing at a 44.56% ball-to-ground rate, among the lowest on the slate.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Giants at -110, good for 52.38% implied odds. My model gives San Francisco a 56.83% chance of winning, so we’re getting good value here. The Giants are 1-1 behind Junis while the Padres are 2-5 behind Manaea, losing each of his last four starts. The Giants have won five straight at home and four in a row against left-handed starters. They’ve also won four games in a row when the total is between 7.0 and 8.5, so I’ll take the home team value.
Choose: Giants Money Line (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and be sure to follow my twitter for more games. On Thursday!
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