Free MLB Betting Picks – Today’s Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (8/23/22)

As we enter the end of August, post-season racing is starting to heat up in a major way. The Mets and Braves continue to battle for the NL East, the AL Central is wide open and wildcard runs in both leagues are completely up for grabs; heck, even the Rays and Blue Jays put some pressure on the Yankees in the AL East. It really is the best time of the year!

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I will provide my favorite MLB betting picks on Tuesday, August 22, 2022 for all 16 games. 2:20 EST afternoon slate. Personally, my approach is a little more on the analytical side; I’m using a projection model that I created using projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Maps to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching team, by adjusting the team’s pitcher. Based on the expected point differential each team is expected to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate this into a probability of winning, which leads to a adjusted money-line . For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today’s starting pitcher) are used, as well as baseball scholar park factors. It’s not the end of the world, but having an objective system for identifying potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!

Today we’ll be looking at the best side and total bets for today’s slate. Headlining a battle of New York teams and a Cardinals/Cubs double-header, it’s a hugely exciting day in baseball. What Games Should You Watch? Let’s dive straight into the action today!

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MLB Betting Projection Model Results

*NOTE: A negative spread indicates that the home team is expected to win, and vice versa.

MLB Betting Pick of the Day – Brewers @ Dodgers

O/U: 7 | Moneyline: DAL-154

MIL: Corbin Burnes | LAD: Tony Gonsolin

Why do so many teams compete for consecutive weeks? The Nationals and Padres just ended their streak of back-to-back weekends in absolutely embarrassing fashion for both sides, and after splitting a streak in Milwaukee last week, the Brewers and Dodgers are back.

Speaking of last week, we had a huge temptation of fate indicating that the Brewers were a favorable pick against a high-powered Dodgers team, and after that, we ended up working in extra innings, we’re back! I mean, when Corbin Burnes is on the mound for an underdog, how not to be tempted?

Of all the starting pitchers, only Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer have a lower projected ERA of THE BAT than Burnes, and for good reason. Among skilled pitchers, the Milwaukee ace ranks fourth in Interactive ERA (SIERA) and K-BB (25.1%) and leads the league in both of those stats dating back to 2021. Talk about a starting pitcher which is also “explosion proof” as it goes; he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 21 of 24 starts this season, which is what you’d expect for a pitcher with the rare combination of missing bats and limiting barrels. Yeah, he’s pretty good at that baseball thing.

Additionally, ranked 11th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), the Brewers have been more than a competent offense this season, especially when it comes to hitting for power (5th in isolated power/ISO) and walks. in drawing (tie- 4th in BB%). Although Tony Gonsolin has the lowest ERA (2.12) in baseball, this is due to a substantial amount of hit ball chance, including a .201 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP), 8.6% home run/fly ball rate, and 84.6% base rate.

Now, as a pitcher who induces a lot of low-hit fly balls, he’s naturally going to be a bit of an outlier in that regard, but not enough to beat his SIERA (3.72) by a point and a half. . Ultimately, Milwaukee is the team with the pitcher that should allow one less earned full run per nine innings, which more than makes up for any talent gap between these two teams. As such, this game would appear to be a draw, but that is not what the betting markets are seeing. Hey, there are definitely worse pitchers to trust.

Picks: Milwaukee Moneyline (+130), Caesars Sportsbook

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MLB Betting Pick of the Day – White Sox @ Orioles

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CHW-141

CSA: Dylan Cease | BALL: Austin Voth

Talk about two teams that couldn’t feel differently that their season is over! At the start of the year, the White Sox were seen as a World Series contender, while the Orioles finished as the worst team in baseball over the past two full seasons. So, naturally, Baltimore is the team going into this game with the best record. Baseball, am I right?

Fortunately, the White Sox find themselves just three games behind the AL Central and are in a formidable position to close that gap. Why? Well, that’s what happens when Dylan Cease is on the mound. I mean, he’s a pitcher who had allowed one earned run or less in 14 starts prior to last week. Not only is the 26-year-old returning to his usual missing-bat tricks (32.3% K, 2nd among qualified starters), but subtly making his slider his most-used pitch at the expense of fastballs and changes , it also induces less favorable contacts. Usually the only “bugaboo” for him has been his walk rate (10.5% BB), but he now faces a team that chases at the fourth highest rate and is also in the bottom ten in walk rate. . Expect it to be more or less the same for one of the game’s most enticing launchers.

Meanwhile, the South Siders (11th in wRC+ over the past 30 days) have seen their attacking contributions improve of late, and that comes down to the production they’re getting from key players during this time:

Now Jimenez and Abreu certainly benefit from the chance of the knocked ball, but their quality of contact has also been very strong. Heck, Luis Robert only played ten games in that span; they’re definitely a better team now than they were earlier in the season, even without Tim Anderson in the fold.

Orioles starter Austin Voth comes with a 4.95 projected ERA of zippers and has reached six innings just once this year. In other words, consider the huge pitching gap here, while it’s still hard not to believe the White Sox are simply the best team overall. At (+115), the South Siders’ running line deserves close scrutiny as well, but, either way, expect them to show why many were so confident for the season.

Pick: White Sox Moneyline (-141), WynnBet Sportsbook

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more DFS content and bets throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me on @talkmvp.

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Christy J. Olson