Most Republicans think midterms were ‘free and fair,’ poll finds as fraud fears fall flat

Topline

A narrow majority of Republican voters believe the midterm elections were ‘free and fair’, a new morning poll survey finds – a significant jump from before Election Day – as the aftermath of the election has so far been largely devoid of the voter fraud allegations that have plagued the 2020 race, with even “denial” candidates mostly conceding defeat rather than trying to fight their losses.

Highlights

According to the poll, conducted Nov. 10-12, a 52% majority of registered GOP voters said the midterm elections were “definitely” or “probably” free and fair.

That marks a record for Republican respondents’ confidence in midterms since Morning Consult began polling the question in January 2021, the pollster reported, and is up from the 42% who had predicted midterms. mandate would be free and fair at the last question on November 4.

Democrats still had much more confidence in the election results, with 89% believing them to be fair.

Republican men were significantly more likely to accept the results than women (60% saying midterm reviews were free and fair vs. 44% of women), which Morning Consult found has been a consistent trend throughout. throughout his survey on this issue.

Contra

While Republicans have grown more confident in the midterm results, they are still not happy with the election in the country as a whole. Only 46% of Republicans said they had “a little” or “a lot” of confidence in the US electoral system as a whole after the midterm elections, which is actually down from the 48% who said the same thing the week before.

Key context

The midterm elections have so far passed largely without major disruptions or disputes over the results, despite fears after former President Donald Trump and his allies made numerous baseless allegations of voter fraud after the 2020 election. Trump has pushed some unfounded conspiracy theories regarding ballots in places such as Maricopa County, Arizona; Michigan and Pennsylvania, but so far there have been no widespread protests from GOP voters or major attempts to challenge the results. While a significant number of races had GOP candidates who continue to deny the 2020 election results — many of whom ultimately lost — these candidates largely did not challenge their own results. After attracting widespread attention as “election deniers” and raising fears about how they would handle their losses, Republicans like Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, Michigan attorney general nominee Matt DePerno and Michigan gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon all conceded their races, while others did not concede outright but also did not allege fraud or attempt to overturn the vote count.

To monitor

So challenges will still be ahead from the GOP candidates who lost their races. Kristina Karamo, who lost the race for Michigan Secretary of State by a 14 point marginhas still not conceded his race and Told supporters “there is more to come,” for example, and Arizona Secretary of State nominee Mark Finchem referenced the Arizona Senate results on Twitter like “#FakeNews lies”. The Associated Press projected Monday night that election denier Kari Lake lost the Arizona gubernatorial race for Democrat Katie Hobbs, after Lake continually pushed voter fraud allegations toward 2020 and refuse to explicitly state that she would accept the results of her race if she lost. It is not yet known whether Lake will contest the results of his race; Tuesday morning, the candidate had only said Twitter“Arizonans know BS when they see it.”

Tangent

The morning consultation survey also found growing support for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R), who has drawn attention as the next GOP standard bearer and potential presidential candidate after a landslide midterm victory – while Trump , by contrast, saw its star fade as it was blamed for the Republican Party’s losses. The poll found that 33% of potential GOP primary voters now say they would vote for DeSantis over Trump or another candidate, marking a record for the governor and up from 26% before the mid – mandates. A plurality of 47% would still support Trump, who is below 48% before the midterms and 57% who supported the ex-president in August.

Further reading

Despite GOP underperformance, its voters increasingly view midterm elections as ‘free and fair’ (Morning consultation)

Trump election plot boosters largely accept their own defeats (Policy)

Fact check: Trump claims baseless midterm voter fraud allegations in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania (Forbes)

Election officials feared the worst. Here’s why baseless allegations didn’t fuel the chaos (NPR)

Christy J. Olson